Republicans are opening a new line of attack on President Joe Biden and congressional Democrats as US stocks head for their worst year since 2008, sapping Americans’ retirement accounts in the run-up to the midterm elections.

Dropping balances in 401(k)s and IRAs have only just begun to surface as a concern among swing voters in focus groups, though usually as one complaint in a litany of grievances over the economy, still mostly driven by frustration over consumer prices, several Republican strategists said.

But Republican officials and candidates took notice of stock prices when they hit new lows in September, even as inflation, abortion, crime, and former President Donald Trump’s legal travails continue to dominate campaigns for the November vote that will decide control of Congress.

Although an early October rally may take some of the steam out of  the GOP argument, the month is a notoriously choppy one for markets. Should stocks slide again as the nation moves closer to the election, it would reinforce the Republicans’ campaign theme.

Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell took to the chamber’s floor last week to try to tie Biden to the tumult in markets as Federal Reserve interest rate increases and a crisis in British bond markets roiled investors.

McConnell, whose been working to bolster GOP chances of regaining Senate control in the midterm elections, said recent declines are “cutting the value of America’s retirement savings just as the cost of living has soared.”

On Twitter, Republican Nicole Malliotakis, who is running for re-election on New York’s Staten Island, warned, “retirement savings are being wiped out!”

It’s an appeal aimed at older voters, who have the most retirement savings at risk and who reliably turn out for midterm elections. The contest for control of the Senate in particular will be decided by narrow margins in roughly five states, and both parties are focusing on issues -- the economy for Republicans, abortion rights for Democrats -- that will motivate their voters.

Although October has begun in positive fashion for both stock and bond markets, the decline that, at the market’s recent nadir, wiped out more than $14 trillion in financial wealth this year still may resonate.

“We’re starting to find it more in our polls and more of our focus groups,” said Sarah Chamberlain, president of the Republican Main Street Partnership, a group that supports some centrist Republican candidates in tight races. “It’s not a massive group, but it’s started to grow.”

Chamberlain said her group’s internal polling showed a bump in support for Biden among older voters after enactment of Democratic legislation in August lowering prescription drug costs later tapered as market losses mounted. While Biden isn’t on the ballot, his already low approval ratings are a drag on Democratic candidates along with historical trends that favor Republicans.

Unlike his predecessor, Biden doesn’t regularly comment on swings in stock prices. The administration argues that markets are only one measure of the economy and point to a still-strong job market as well as legislation signed into law this year to spur the domestic semiconductor industry and clean energy projects.

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said last week in response to a question about market turmoil that Biden has presided over “one of the strongest job markets on record” and that the US economy is making “a transition to a more steady and stable growth.”

 

Just under 35% of working-age Americans had 401(k) or similar employer-sponsored defined-contribution accounts in 2020, with a median balance of $30,000, and 18% had Individual Retirement Accounts or similar tax-advantaged individual retirement savings, with a median balance of $31,000, according to the U.S. Census.

Those accounts have had some bad months. At its worst, the benchmark S&P 500 stock index has dropped almost 25% in 2022 as the Fed began a series of rate increases to fight inflation, with much of the decline coming in a steep 9.3% plunge in September, the worst monthly loss since the US economy locked down in March 2020.

Still, shares at the beginning of the year had more than doubled from March 2020 lows. And investors had built up a lot of gains, so much so that the S&P 500 was still more than 10% ahead of its February 2020 pre-pandemic peak at the close of Wednesday’s trading.

While retirement savers often include bond investments to cushion the blow in a stock market downturn, this time bond market losses have also been severe, adding to the damage in 401(k) portfolios. The Fidelity US Bond Index Fund, a typical fund designed to correspond to the performance of the Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index, lost almost 15% in the first three quarters of the year.

How potent the GOP highlighting the market slide will be remains to be seen. Anxiety over retirement savings is ticking up even as Americans are growing more confident about the economy overall following a drop in gasoline prices and an easing of overall inflation.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey has risen for three months in a row. But when respondents to the survey are asked to rate the chance they will have adequate retirement savings, the average answer in September was 36.6%, down from 42.2% in January, a market peak when Americans were unusually confident of their wealth.

American investors have already been through a period of unusual market volatility, including a crash after coronavirus lockdowns that was quickly followed by record highs, and been exposed to years of advice to ignore short-term gyrations.

Ted Mitchell, a spokesman for Fidelity Investments, one of the largest providers of US retirement account services, with nearly $10 trillion under management, said the firm hasn’t seen a significant shift in retirement savers’ contribution rates or asset allocation.

The nonpartisan campaign advertising monitoring company AdImpact hasn’t detected any significant political TV commercials on retirement account losses. Chamberlain said she isn’t likely to suggest it as a theme for TV advertising but will probably encourage candidates to raise the issue in lower-profile direct mail ads in the coming weeks.

Republican pollster Robert Blizzard said concerns over retirement account losses and the stock market decline so far mostly work as “reinforcement” for voters already unhappy with Democrats over the economy.

“Voters are far more focused on short-term financial worries like affording groceries and supplies and less so on long-term investments,” Blizzard said. “Those frustrated with the current administration point to the bear market as another example of their own economic anxieties.”

--With assistance from Jordan Fabian.

This article was provided by Bloomberg News.