since 2008, sending it daily shortly after the market close.
The opinions expressed below are my own
The same thing every day.
What did I say yesterday? Well ditto today.
There’s nothing materially new or different in the markets as the days roll along. That being said, the tape climbs slowly and steadily.
Is this a good thing? I don’t know. Does this make sense? It does make *some
* sense. The news headlines aren’t shaking up the world so quiet markets should coincide with a quiet world. The big issue with the quiet markets is that they are *so
* quiet. The volatility of markets is so low that it raises a lot of eyebrows. Focusing on US equities for the moment, we are experiencing the longest, calmest stretch of activity - ever.Does that make sense? One can make cases for yes and no obviously but the yes case strikes me as quite a stretch.
Also complicating things is the strong trend higher. It’s one thing for US equities to go up and little and down a little and travel nowhere over some period of time. What we’re experiencing is up a little, down a little once in a blue moon, and we’ve travelled much higher over every time horizon. Is that right or wrong? I don’t know… but it’s unprecedented and that’s the weird part.
Here are three pictures of the S&P 500. One is a 5 year, one is a 1 year, one is a 30 day. The self-similarity is remarkable. The bullish trends are one component. The lack of noise is the other.
I don’t know what this means. It could be meaningless coincidence. It could be a sign of a crowded trade. It could be anything in between.
All I know is that it is bizarre. In a quiet market, bizarre is worth pointing out.
See youtomorrow
,-Mike