FA Whitepapers


January 2016  

Vanguard's Economic and Investment Outlook

Much like 2015, global growth will remain frustratingly fragile in 2016, according to Vanguard's 2016 economic and investment outlook.
In this report, Joe Davis, Vanguard's global chief economist, and his team outline their expectations for global economic growth, inflation, monetary policy, interest rates, and returns for stocks and bonds over the next decade.
Although not bearish, their outlook for global stocks and bonds is the most guarded since 2006 thanks to compressed risk premiums and the low-rate environment. Despite the muted return outlook, they predict that the U.S. equity bull market will persist until the next global recession and that the U.S. economy will undergo its longest expansion in nearly a century.
Use this paper to:
  • Review Vanguard's global economic and investment outlook, developed using the Vanguard Capital Markets Model® simulation tool, for the next decade starting 2016.
  • Find out what our investment experts believe may happen regarding inflation, interest rates, and policy changes in the United States and abroad.
  • Learn about the implications of Vanguard's economic and investment outlook for balanced portfolios and asset allocation.

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