GOP leaders, fresh off their tax reform victory, are banking on Washington’s anti-regulation climate to help them pass a rider in a House spending bill that would completely vacate the U.S. Department of Labor’s fiduciary rule.

The rider to kill the rule has been attached to spending bills for several years, but it’s been successfully struck down by Democrats. There is conjecture among some pundits and lobbyists, however, that this year could be different.

“This is more of an uphill climb to keep the retirement saver protection in place this year because of the regulatory climate,” said Maureen Thompson, the vice president of public policy at the CFP Board of Standards.

Longtime fiduciary advocate Knut Rostad agrees that there is a greater chance now than in years past that a rider could strike down the DOL rule.

“In this climate, I would not bet against it, unfortunately,” Rostad said.

The fate of the department’s rule will live or die by the ability of Democratic leaders to negotiate the rider out of the bill, as they have in the past.

But there is also speculation that Democrats may be more willing to sacrifice the rule as a concession for items such as disaster relief and the treatment of immigrants under the DACA program (the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals). Despite controlling the House and the Senate, Republicans still need to get buy-in from some of the 49 Democrats in the Senate, or otherwise face a filibuster.

Lobbying on the rider to kill the DOL fiduciary rule—which requires brokers and advisors to meet a best interest standard when working with retirement investors—is beginning in earnest

“We’ve reached out to the Democrat leadership over the years and we and a variety of coalitions will be reaching out and letting them know how important this rule-making is to investor protection,” said Thompson.

The House rider says the DOL’s fiduciary rule “will have no force or effect.” Missing from the legislative language is any requirement that the Securities and Exchange Commission take up rule-making if the DOL rule is killed.

If lawmakers fail to reach a consensus on an omnibus spending package by a January 19 deadline, they’ll be forced to approve another temporary spending bill (with 2017 spending limits) or risk a government shutdown.

Will The Rider Survive?

Micah Hauptman, the financial services counsel at the Consumer Federation of America, does not expect the rider to survive.

“Wall Street lobbyists have attempted to insert DOL fiduciary riders in spending bills for years,” he said. Democratic leaders Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, he added, “understand how disastrous a fiduciary rider would be for retirement savers and have been steadfastly opposed to the inclusion of a rider.

“I don’t anticipate any change in their commitment to preserving the rule.”

Proponents of killing the fiduciary rule, including the Financial Services Institute and SIFMA, declined to comment on the new attempt to dismantle the rule.

If the rule is quashed, however, some pundits do not expect the SEC to pick up the fiduciary gauntlet in a meaningful way.

“This is absolutely a different SEC,” said Rostad, referring to current chairman Jay Clayton. “We have not seen an SEC chairman speak so candidly and forcefully about disclosure taking the place of fiduciary standards as the answer to investor protection.”

Generally, industry and academic research have not found disclosure to be an effective investor protection when it comes to conflicts of interest warnings.

“There is no apology for not talking about the importance of a best interest standard,” Rostad said. “There is no serious argument that disclosure alone will work, and the other side has stopped even trying to make one.”

He said members of the Institute for the Fiduciary Standard plan to meet with the SEC later this month.