The chances of Congress getting the Securing a Strong Retirement Act of 2021 (SECURE 2.0) over the finish line this year are dwindling, according to Melissa Kahn, managing director of retirement policy at State Street Global Advisors.

The bill would raise the mandatory age for RMDs and automatically enroll some workers in retirement plans, among a host of other provisions.

With lawmakers going out on recess in August and the Biden administration focusing its energy on passing its infrastructure and budget plans, time to get Secure 2.0 through committees in the House and Senate and to successful respective floor votes is running out, Kahn told Financial Advisor magazine.

“I wouldn’t say I’m pessimistic, but I’d say the chances of enacting the legislation this year are less than 50%. I’d put it at 20% to 30%,” Kahn said.

However, a significant amount of the committee markups and legislative work is likely to be done on the legislation by the time it is reintroduced in 2022, she said.

The House Ways and Means Committee passed the bill with overwhelming bipartisan approval May 5. The House Health Subcommittee had a hearing on the legislation last week. “That hearing wasn’t quite as much of a bipartisan coming together, but I still think it went pretty well and think they’ll mark up parts of Secure 2.0 soon,” Kahn said.

The Senate Finance Committee has said it will hold a hearing on the legislation later this month. “Then it’s a question of how quickly they will go to markup,” she added.

“I know that House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Richard Neal would like to see this on the floor sooner than later, but right now they’re dealing with infrastructure. The Senate is out for two weeks. The House is going out and than there is August recess. The clock is starting to tick,” Kahn said.

Sens. Ben Cardin (D-Md.) and Rob Portman (R-Ohio) also reintroduced the Retirement Security & Savings Act, which includes a few new provisions and could get rolled into the Secure Act 2.0, she said.

“I know the Senate is talking about the differences between Secure 2.0 and Portman-Cardin. Those differences will have to be worked out,” Kahn said.

Then, because retirement legislation rarely moves as a stand-alone bill, lawmakers will need to find a vehicle to which they can attach Secure 2.0, she said.

“One of the questions is what will this ride on?” Kahn said. “They have to find a vehicle.”

In the meantime, the work of refining and working out differences in the House bill and Portman Cardin continues. “The thing that they’re pretty focused on is how to increase RMDs to age 75. The House version does a step approach where it phases in over the next 10 years and the Senate bill is sort of a cliff that goes from 72 to 75 by 2032,” Kahn said.

Lawmakers will also pay close attention to retirement plan auto enrollment and auto escalation provisions. “Auto enrollment is one of Chairman Neal’s biggest priorities,” she added.
A federal provision that would mandate that employers over a certain size offer automatic enrollment payroll deduction individual retirement accounts is on Neal’s wishlist, but more controversial.

Many states are moving forward with legislation that requires employers with more than 10 employees to offer auto-enrollment IRAs. Three states—Oregon, Illinois and California—already have launched auto-IRA programs. Maine and New York just passed statutes mandating auto-enrollment IRAs in the past two months.

There is also a lot of focus in Congress on the decumulation side of the retirement equation, Kahn said. “Lawmakers want to make sure that defined contribution plans offer some kind of retirement income distribution service” to help retirees figure out what they can securely draw down from their retirement assets, she said.