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Edward Bolingbroke

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Bond Traders Now Lean Toward Quarter-Point Fed Hike In February

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The swaps market is now pricing the Fed's policy rate to peak at just 4.85% by May.

Fed Traders Steer Toward A 75-Basis-Point September Rate Hike

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The Fed has raised rates four times since March.

Traders Abandon Bets On A Half-Point Fed Rate Hike In March

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The Russian invasion in Ukraine has traders believing a quarter-point increase is more likely.

Fed Traders Have Dialed Back Bets On A Supersized March Hike

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Traders see a quarter-point move as the most likely scenario.

Traders Boost Bets On Super-Sized March Fed Hike On Jobs Blowout

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Traders see a greater likelihood that the Fed will start tightening with the first half-percentage-point increase since 2000.

Treasury Yields Jump As Conviction On Fed Hikes Grows

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Benchmark yields climbed across the curve, led by the 10-year, rising as much as 11 basis points.

Traders Are Betting That Fed Rates Will Peak Shortly After 2023

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Wall Street is betting that the next rate hike cycle will be very short.

Fed Rate Hike In June Has Become A Coin Flip As Yields Climb

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A full hike is fully priced into the Fed's September meeting.

Cheap Negative Rate Bets Fly Off The Shelves Before Fed Decision

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Just before the Fed meeting, eurodollar futures are pricing in the first rate hike around March 2023.

The Big Short in Treasuries Is Showing Some Pre-Election Cracks

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Leveraged investors have never had a bigger bet on losses in bond futures

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