Employment has undeniably improved, but wage growth has been notably subdued in this cycle … or has it?
Measures of investor sentiment show at best uncertainty, at worst too much optimism short-term.
As April comes to a close, investors are again wondering whether to “sell in May and go away”
Although we’re unlikely to exit from a muddle-through state, the risk of recession is objectively low.
Barring an economic recession, corrective phases during this cycle should be limited.
Apocalyptic scenarios abound, but investors who have defaulted to optimism historically have been rewarded.
Recession risk is up, but beware of the cacophony of apocalyptic forecasts.
Despite increased risks, it doesn’t appear a U.S. recession is in the foreseeable future.
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