For many strategists, the current retreat is a blip before the reflation trade reasserts itself once again. That would imply stocks sensitive to the economic reopening will stage a comeback, with cyclical and value-oriented sectors of the market standing to benefit the most.
UBS Global Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer Mark Haefele in his monthly letter to clients last week wrote that fears over premature Federal Reserve tightening or the spread of the delta variant derailing the recovery are “overdone.” Consumers have strong balance sheets, he said, and the need for businesses to rebuild inventory and capex could sustain economic momentum and corporate earnings.
Marko Kolanovic, JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s chief global markets strategist, is also among those calling for such a bounce, arguing that it could happen once delta variant fears subside and inflation surprises persist.
And Michael Purves, founder and CEO at Tallbacken, on Monday raised his year-end target for the S&P 500 to 4,800 from 4,250, implying a roughly 13% gain from current levels.
“We think the combination of low, and stable, interest rates with a strong earnings growth trajectory will support the equity risk premium at healthy levels at 4,800 at year end,” he wrote in a note. “While we are past peak earnings growth, the earnings growth story into and through 2022 will continue to be robust. Further, we find little evidence that a rollover in peak earnings growth is a reason to sell the market.”
—With assistance from Elaine Chen, Daniel Curtis and Elena Popina.
This article was provided by Bloomberg News.