9. The cold wars within the U.S. and between the U.S. and China continue.
This is our third unchanged prediction. And, sadly, it is one that is proving to be correct. An optimist would hope that Americans would have used this time of crisis to pull together, but the opposite seems to be the case as political and social divisions within the United States have worsened since the start of the crisis. And the relationship between the U.S. and China appears to be deteriorating as the countries move from being competitors to adversaries.
10. Original: The U.S. concludes a tumultuous political year with a status quo election.
Update: The coronavirus recession and rise in unemployment cause Donald Trump to be a one-term president.
President Trump’s popularity and poll numbers have been dropping sharply in recent months, and the possibilities of a Democratic sweep of the White House and Congress are growing. Four months is a long time in politics, and we could see trends change. Should a sweep occur, it would represent a substantial change in the government’s tax and regulatory policies that could have significant implications for financial markets.
Robert C. Doll, CFA, is senior portfolio manager and chief equity strategist at Nuveen.
1 Bloomberg, FactSet and Morningstar Direct
2 Credit Suisse
3 Bank of America Merrill Lynch