Yesterday, I published a scorecard, listing how I did in my predictions for 2017. Now, as usual, I join the legion of amateur prognosticators who offer guesses about what will happen in 2018. Once again, I borrow my friend Gregg Easterbrook’s slogan: All predictions guaranteed, or your money back. Of the baker’s dozen below, one or two are tongue-in-cheek. I leave it to the reader to figure out which.
1. Sometime in the autumn, special counsel Robert Mueller will conclude his investigation into possible collusion between Donald Trump’s presidential campaign and the Russian government. There will be one or two additional indictments, but only for lying to investigators. No one will be charged with a substantive offense related to the reason Mueller was appointed in the first place. (As I’ve noted before, where special prosecutors are concerned, this is lately the rule, not the exception.) Mueller will wait until after the midterm election and then issue a scathing report about the Trump campaign but add that he could find no evidence of criminal violations.
2. By a vote of 6-3, the U.S. Supreme Court will decide the Masterpiece Cakeshop case against the baker who is violating Colorado law by refusing on religious grounds to custom design a cake for a same-sex wedding. Justice Anthony Kennedy, writing for the majority, will quote liberally from the late Justice Antonin Scalia’s opinion in Employment Division v. Smith (1990), which denied a request for a religious exemption to drug laws -- a decision that President Bill Clinton and Vice President Al Gore tried hard to overturn. Justice Neil Gorsuch will author the principal dissent.
3. Antarctica will continue to lose over 100 gigatonnes of ice a year. Diehard skeptics, fire away in the comments.
4 . Senator Al Franken, Democrat of Minnesota, will return from the holiday recess to say that he has been talking to his constituents and that they do not want him to resign from office. He will announce he has therefore decided to stay. Republican leaders will claim that Franken never intended to leave, and that the Democratic indignation over his behavior was really just a cover to allow them to condemn Republican Roy Moore in the Alabama special Senate election without seeming unprincipled. They might have a point. On the other hand, the allegations against Moore were a lot worse. (I’m not excusing Franken; I still think he should go; I just don’t think he will.)
5. The highest-grossing film of the year will be “Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom.”
6. Given the finding that Russian athletes have been doping, and the subsequent International Olympic Committee action that constitutes either a ban or nothing important, the television ratings for the 2018 Winter Games in Pyeongchang, South Korea, will be worse than hoped. In fact, the ratings will be significantly lower than those for the 2014 Winter Games in Sochi, Russia, which already represented a drop-off from those of the 2010 Winter Games in Vancouver. (Although this might still come true.)
7. And speaking of Korea, the repeated purges by Kim Jong Un, leader of North Korea, will backfire in 2018. Kim is said to be trying to prevent a coup. He has reportedly hired Russian bodyguards, because he does not fully trust his own security staff. But Kim’s ruthless brutality in pruning senior officials (two were executed last year with an antiaircraft gun), combined with the growing weight of international sanctions, will bring about exactly what he is hoping to forestall: a military coup. After several hours of hushed, anxious commentary from Western news media (along with a victory lap on Twitter by the U.S. president), Kim will emerge from hiding unscathed and the coup will be declared a failure. (In the alternative, Kim might agree to leave office, if promised a deal to rival the one negotiated by Robert Mugabe.)