This is the time of year for annual reckonings and predictions by strategists and analysts, illustrating little more than that they know what pleases their employers and that their powers of prognostication are nonexistent. And yet, full of bravado and confidence, they explain what stocks to buy, when a recession will come along, what the Federal Reserve is going to do, and when the market is going to tank. (Truth be told, that last one is less of a prediction these days and more a case of real-time reporting.)
These forecasts are, for the most part, exercises in futility.
But first, a reminder: The problem with forecasts goes beyond their mere lack of accuracy. My critique is with the underlying cognitive and philosophical failings that are associated with the entire forecasting industry: a lack of humility, the assumption of a skill set clearly not in evidence, and most damning of all, a failure to recognize the randomness of the world at large.
Most insidious are the forecasts designed to separate the suckers from their dollars.So, in order to remind you why you should be ignoring the 2019 forecasts, let’s consider some of the more egregious predictions of 2018:
Bitcoin: The spectrum of predictions ran from the sublime to the criminally negligent to the utterly insane. It got so bad that a website was set up to track all of the Bitcoin prophesies. My colleague Nick Maggiulli notes that chaotic systems can’t be predicted, as they are subject to the Three Body Problem (and its variants).
Fundstrat's Tom Lee's 2018 forecast for $25,000 Bitcoin was reduced last month to $15,000 by year-end. (The cryptocurrency recently traded at about $3,650.) As foolish as that sounds, it was modest compared to the rest of the asylum. Michael Novogratz forecast that “$40,000 was possible by the end of 2018.” Kay Van-Petersen of Saxo Bank predicted Bitcoin would rise to $50,000 to $100,000 by the end of this year. John McAfee, the eccentric tech entrepreneur, has called for $1 million Bitcoin by 2020. Analogizing crypto to the internet, Tim Draper doubles McAfee, coming in at $2 million.
All of these are notable not just for being wrong, but for their sheer recklessness.
Politics: This year shouldn't have been that hard to forecast; the party out of power tends to gain in midterm elections. With President Donald Trump’s approval ratings well below 50 percent, a swing in the House of Representatives was not wholly unexpected. Yet we still saw foolish forecasts declaring “America’s Booming Economy Will Smash Democrats in 2018.” Instead, the 40-seat swing was the biggest midterm gain for the Democrats since Watergate.
Others made similarly misguided forecasts. Fortune’s editors wrote “Democrats will have the numbers in the 2018 midterm election, but we predict it won’t be enough for them to take the House.” Nope.
Despite soaring turnout in the primaries, Democrats were also warned that “their voters won’t show up” on Election Day. That was according to Vox in September. Vox also cautioned that younger voters might stay home rather than vote, and that “the Blue Wave was crashing.” As it turned out, the exact opposite occurred.