If you’re a true vintage-car obsessive, this could be your year.

Official estimates for the Pebble Beach auctions this week have set sales totals at $290 million, down 14 percent since 2016. It’s the third consecutive drop since a record $403 million in 2014.

Not only are classic vehicles taking longer to sell in general, according to early reports by Hagerty Insurance, it’s more difficult to find highly desirable cars in the first place. Over the past 12 months, auction sell-through rates for vehicles worth more than $250,000 has fallen 8.5 percent, to a five-year low.

Though the soft market might make it more difficult for speculators and pure investors to find what they want, it’s a boon for real enthusiasts.

“It’s a much more selective market right now,” said David Brynan, senior specialist for Gooding & Co. “Over the past few years, for really exceptional cars, the sales are really strong in any price category. People are paying for quality.”

Pretty Young Things
The auctions will begin on Friday in Carmel, Calif., surrounding the Pebble Beach Concours d’Elegance, which takes place on Sunday. Million-dollar Ferraris and racing Porsches will line up on the golf club’s 18th fairway opposite classic Jaguars, Rolls-Royces, and Aston Martins. The annual show draws wealthy car-lovers to the Monterey Peninsula from all over the world—often, people attending the concours on Sunday have just purchased an expensive collectible Saturday night.

While multimillion-dollar cars such as Steve McQueen’s blue-and-orange 1970 Porsche 917K will dominate the headlines, the key spot to watch this weekend is that of a group of vehicles valued at less than $100,000: Ford Broncos from the 1970s, Chevrolet 3100 trucks from the 1950s, and the odd BMW 2002 or two.

“That group is booming,” says Jonathan Klinger, spokesman for insurer Hagerty. “That is where you’re seeing older millennials (35 years or so) get in for the first time, so from that standpoint the market is healthy. It’s not the same [older, moneyed] people churning over the same cars.”

Elsewhere, the 1954-1965 Alfa Romeo Giulietta and 1957-1970 Lancia Flaminia have increased in value over the last year, with little sign of slowing down. Likewise, the late 1980s BMW M6 and early ‘70s BMW 3.0CSL have heated up as the interest in older Porsche models has cooled. (Tellingly, the generation of 1999-2005 Porsche 911 was the only one skipped over in the 2012–2015 boom in Porsche popularity and remains strongly desired, according to Hagerty data.)

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