All of this also suggests that a China-U.S. agreement is unlikely to mark a decisive end to this period of trade tension for the global economy. Instead, look for a temporary cease-fire for an agreement that is likely to face implementation challenges and that, once Europe and the U.S. resolve their own trade issues, will likely be followed by a broader coalition seeking further assurances and concessions from China.
Mohamed A. El-Erian is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is the chief economic adviser at Allianz SE, the parent company of Pimco, where he served as CEO and co-CIO. His books include “The Only Game in Town” and “When Markets Collide.”