Chips Are Down
Meanwhile, shares of Apple Inc. plunged on Monday, capping the worst seven-day stretch in two years after a supplier said one of its largest customers had asked it to reduce shipments. Speculation is rife that the customer was Apple, and fear of a sales slowdown triggered an equity slump across the supply chain.

The episode has reminded investors that consumers may not be on hand to prop up growth -- a fact also borne out by the rapid build-up in inventory at chip manufacturers.

“Semiconductor stocks typically lead the overall market,” said Fred Hickey, author of the High-Tech Strategist newsletter. He’s betting against Nvidia, Intel and Cisco Systems. “No one wants to get caught sitting on a lot of inventory when prices are in rapid decline -- especially so during economic downturns.”

The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index plummeted 12 percent in October, the biggest monthly drop in more than eight years.

Black and Yellow
Tumbling oil prices also point to further weakening for global expansion -- particularly when measured against gold.

Even as sanctions were reimposed on Iran, U.S. crude is on the longest losing streak on record as slower economic activity constrains demand, according to Capital Economics. The gold-oil ratio, a proxy for how havens perform versus industrial assets, has jumped toward 18 this week from below 14 in early October.

“The world economy has lost some steam in recent months and is likely to slow much further in the next couple of years,” chief economist Caroline Bain and her team wrote in a note. They see WTI falling to $55 as the market moves into surplus next year, pushing the ratio the metal above 23.

It’s not clear cut, though. Crude’s retreat in November may have more to do with supply than demand -- a crucial distinction for using oil to gauge global growth.

Raw Thinking
Commodity markets have plenty more insight to offer. The ratio of raw-materials prices to initial jobless claims -- an economic gauge known as the Boom-Bust Barometer at Yardeni Research -- is tumbling from a record peak.

It’s fallen for the past eight weeks in the longest losing streak since 2009. Tracking industrial inputs like copper, steel and lead scraps, the metric has fallen before or during the past four recessions.