Fears for the economy have stoked government bonds as investors fret slowing growth and rock-bottom inflation. Treasuries returned just over 5% in the first half as they piled in. In the process more of the yield curve inverted, and the world’s pool of negative debt swelled to a record.

Yet as bonds screamed recession, stocks defied that, too.

“They don’t seem to price-in the same scenario, and this raises some worries for the second half,” said Guillermo Hernandez Sampere, head of trading at asset manager MPPM EK. “We must expect more adjustments and warnings during the summer due to unsolved issues. I wouldn’t call the rally stupid, just fragile.”

Perhaps a look at commodities can break the deadlock. So far in 2019 oil returned about 30%. A bullish sign for global demand? Not at all -- prices are propped up by supply cuts. And while copper has gained less than 6%, industrial metals overall are flat. Raw materials are defying easy explanation.

Barclays Plc strategists Ajay Rajadhyaksha and Michael Gavin are among those unconcerned by the mixed signals given off by markets. They see no disconnect between ultra-low yields and resurgent stocks, saying it’s a readjustment of what investors believe the long-term neutral policy rates will be.

“We expect risk assets to remain resilient as long as relative valuations strongly favor equities over bonds,” they wrote this week.

In the credit market, the defiance was of expectations. The average yield on U.S. investment grade corporate bonds has fallen to the lowest since 2017, while that of European companies sank to a record. A slew of Wall Street predictions for 2019 compiled by Bloomberg said spreads would widen.

The driver is sliding rates and that growing pool of negative debt, which force investors to go further afield for returns. It’s one reason credit is also defying mounting warnings.

When borrowing is cheap companies increase leverage, and some borrowers that might have failed end up surviving. It’s fine while spreads stay low, but stores up trouble for when the cycle turns.

There’s already evidence of caution: globally $136 billion flowed to investment grade funds this year, compared with just $15 billion to high-yield. In the same way, investors have favored defensive equities in 2019.