Companies are already facing the potential of more tariffs and continued cost increases for labor and transportation. Toss in a disappointing Christmas that weighs on profit, and that may create a “double whammy,” which could slow down hiring, according to David Schick, director of research for Consumer Edge Research.

“We are seeing broad evidence that the 2018 holiday season was likely better early than late,” Schick said. “This has implications for margins into 2019.”

Target Strength

Discounter Target reported same-store sales growth of 5.7 percent, topping estimates of about 5 percent. But it didn’t increase its fourth-quarter sales or earnings guidance and only gave a vague forecast for this year, saying it would deliver “profitable growth.”

“Target is doing an excellent job driving sales growth,” Simeon Gutman, a Morgan Stanley analyst, said in a research note. “However, this growth is coming at the expense of profitability.” Plus, this year will only be more difficult with a “weaker consumer spending backdrop.”

Investors will get a better read on whether the weakness was mainly tied to malls, which have been struggling for years and are anchored by department stores, when specialty chains such as Abercrombie & Fitch Co. report results. And full fourth-quarter earnings for most chains won’t be reported until February. But there are already dark clouds, with L Brands Inc., owner of the Victoria’s Secret chain and a huge mall tenant, posting a drop of 6 percent in December same-store sales.

While Thursday’s company reports gave an early indication of recent performance, the broader picture of U.S. holiday shopping is likely to be murky for several more weeks. That’s because the partial federal-government shutdown will probably delay the Commerce Department’s data on December retail sales, which were scheduled for Jan. 16. During the last extended shutdown in 2013, the release of retail figures was postponed for more than two weeks.

Protecting Profit

Some of the 2018 trends aren’t new. During every holiday season, retailers balance chasing revenue and protecting profit. But with the arrival of online shopping and consumers becoming savvier with easy access to prices and promotions, this juggling act has become more difficult for retailers.

Barnes & Noble boosted same-store sales 1.3 percent during the nine-week holiday period, reversing a 6.4 percent drop last year. But it said increased promotions and advertising spending could reduce its annual earnings by 10 percent. Given the presumed financial health of U.S. consumers, retailers shouldn’t need as many discounts.