Meanwhile, household debt loads have eased as Americans shied away from borrowing and banks hesitated to lend in the wake of the financial crisis. Revolving consumer-credit, primarily credit-card debt, plummeted 18 percent from 2008 to 2011, and had recovered just 2.6 percent through November 2013. Outstanding home mortgage debt remains below its 2008 peak. The deleveraging has left consumers with room to borrow.

“The main reason we’ve become more optimistic is that the household balance sheet looks much healthier,” Michelle Meyer, a senior U.S. economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in New York, said in an interview. “Consumers should continue to heal and feel ever more comfortable and confident in spending.”

Non-revolving credit is already rallying as Americans take out loans to buy cars and other big-ticket items, increasing by $11.9 billion in November after a $13.9 billion gain the month before, data from the Federal Reserve showed.

Drag Dissipating

Goldman economists see an even “more important swing factor” taking shape in 2014: Consumers have adjusted to the hit to incomes from last year’s increase in payroll and income taxes, which won’t be repeated this year. That could help boost consumption growth to 2.9 percent in 2014, from their estimate of 2 percent in 2013.

Payroll and income tax increases last year held the growth rate for real disposable income to 1 percent, Hatzius, 45, wrote in the Dec. 27 analysis, and shaved 0.75 percentage point from consumption growth. This year, income growth should accelerate to 3 percent, boosting purchases and GDP, the New York-based economist said.

“The drag seems to have dissipated at this point,” said Peter D’Antonio, an economist at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York. “The fundamentals of the consumer sector are going to show through in a big way.”

Gross domestic product climbed at a 4.1 percent annualized rate in the third quarter of 2013, boosted by consumer purchases that increased 2 percent, according to a Dec. 20 Commerce Department report. GDP growth was up from a 2.5 percent rate in the second quarter and 1.1 percent in the first. Fourth-quarter data come out Jan. 30.

Wealth Rebounding

Adding fuel to consumption, Feldstein said consumers who have rebuilt their net worth will be willing to spend more of their discretionary income.