In the future, seniors will also have fewer children and siblings to call for help. On average, baby boomers grew up in large families, with lots of brothers and sisters. But women today are having far fewer children—the total U.S. fertility rate dropped 26 percent from 1970 to 2015—and more people are growing up as an only child.
In a new study released this month, Verdery and Margolis predict that the number of older Americans without any living kin is about to surge. Using more than 100 years of Census Bureau data to track American families, they project that the share of non-Hispanic whites without any living close kin will double by 2060. The share of non-Hispanic blacks without close kin is expected to more than triple. (Immigration and a lack of data made it difficult to study other racial groups.)
In place of relatives, many people “try to create their own families,” Klinenberg. However, “those networks can be quite fragile.”
To handle these trends, the U.S. needs more and better housing options for older adults, Klinenberg argues. Social mores might also need to change to make sure people—especially men, who are more prone to social isolation—stay connected as they get older. “Our society is evolving quickly, but probably not quickly enough,” he said.