Seasonality Issues
BEA officials believe they’ve now scrubbed the data clean of the so-called residual seasonality issues that have been artificially depressing first-quarter growth. First-quarter GDP is now calculated to have risen by an average annual rate of 1.6 percent from 2002 to 2017, versus 1.2 percent previously.
For 2017, the contours of growth showed a slower second half than previously reported. The first quarter was revised to a 1.8 percent pace from 1.2 percent and the second quarter went to 3 percent from 3.1 percent. The third-quarter pace was reduced to 2.8 percent from 3.2 percent, and the fourth quarter ended up at 2.3 percent, after a previously reported 2.9 percent.
The first quarter of 2018 was revised to a 2.2 percent growth pace from 2 percent.
The bureau also began on Friday to publish GDP data that’s not been seasonally adjusted so economists can make their own calculations of how changes in the calendar affect economic activity.
Digital Economy
An ongoing BEA initiative on the digital economy led to other data changes. The agency adopted new quality-adjusted price measures for software and medical and communications equipment, including cell phones. It also unearthed capital spending on components for cloud computing.
The result was a jump in inflation-adjusted outlays by businesses on high-tech and other equipment. Those investments are now calculated to have grown at an average annual rate of 3.8 percent over the past five years, up from 3.2 percent.
With the rise in spending came a mark-down in corporate profits after adjusting for depreciation and inventory valuations. For 2017, such earnings were lowered by $65.4 billion, or 3 percent. They’re still up for the year though, by 3.2 percent.
In spite of the various tweaks to the numbers, the overall narrative of the economy’s performance over the last decade has not really changed.