One-year: 23.6%
Three-year: 21.6%
Five-year: 10.9%
Impediments to investing success: "People getting scared into and out of the market at the wrong time."
Expert: Laura Tarbox, President
Tarbox Equity, Newport Beach, Calif.
Years in profession: 24
Assets under management: $220 million
Clients: 140 clients
Claim to fame: Tarbox was among the first advisors in the country to create a "core-and-explore" approach to portfolio building, which indexes 60% of client portfolios across all asset classes, then layers in active funds and stocks.
The goal, says Tarbox, who has taught a CFP course for more than 20 years and this year is dean of the Financial Planning Association's Residency Program, "is to meet or exceed clients' needed rates of returns."
Economic outlook: "Generally positive. I think things are starting to hit on all cylinders. Manufacturing is starting to show strength, which we've been waiting for. We'll probably see GDP growth at 4% this quarter and for the first half of 2004."
Interest rate outlook: "We think the Fed may need to raise rates in the first or second quarter of 2004, maybe 1% to 1.5%."
Stock market outlook: "For long-term planning purposes we're using 8% returns. We think 2004 will be good, but probably not as good as 2003's double-digit returns."
Recommended asset allocation: "For growth, where most of our clients are, we're using 20% cash and fixed-income, 30% large-cap, 20% mid-cap, 15% small-cap and 15% international."
Favorite investments: "We'll be overweighting iShares and small cap."
Performance as of October 31, 2003:
YTD: 22%
One-year: 23.7%
Three-year: -0.2%
Five-year: 5.1%