Banks will lead the pick-up in dividends per share, he expects, with the real estate sector, as well as autos and components, trimming their aggregate payouts.

Buybacks Will Stagnate … But At A High Level

Glionna expects the roughly $600 billion in share repurchases that S&P 500 firms are on pace to have completed in 2016 will be matched in 2017. However, elevated leverage, higher yields, and the potential that interest deductibility perks may be eliminated under the new administration augur against an increase in buybacks, he says.

"Companies have been paying out more in dividends and buybacks than they can afford based on free cash flow," the strategist writes. "That has led to $1 trillion of additional borrowings since 2013. While the credit markets remain receptive to additional debt issuance we believe companies are beginning to reach credit rating constraints."

On the other hand, Glionna acknowledges that a repatriation tax holiday could potentially spur a buyback bonanza, as strategists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., among others, have argued.

S&P 500 To 2,400

Glionna's target for the index is tied for the highest number on Wall Street for year-end 2017. You'll notice that his 7 percent advance is equal to his projected rise in adjusted earnings.

This marks the third year that Barclays has not attempted to forecast whether or not valuations (particularly the price-to-earnings ratio) will change, a strategy that has "worked adequately," according to Glionna. He says he finds this tactic especially compelling given where he thinks the U.S. is in the business cycle.

"It is rare for the S&P 500’s price-to-earnings multiple to expand late in a business cycle when earnings are going up," he notes. "Most PE multiple expansion occurs early in a business cycle or late in a business cycle when earnings have begun to decline."

If his upside scenario for earnings growth is realized, the benchmark index could ascend to 2,500 next year. Meanwhile, in a more pessimistic scenario in which rising yields and a strong U.S. dollar kneecap stocks, Glionna sees the S&P 500 falling to 2,000.