With volatility on the rise, maybe it’s time to get tactical -- or it could be enough just to hold the markets.
ETF strategists differed on whether the recent stock market correction is a signal of more difficult times for investors to come, or just more noise amid continued growth, at “ETF Overweights and Underweights: Today’s Best Tactical ETF Strategies,” a Tuesday panel discussion at the ETF Strategy Summit in Dallas.
Despite recent volatility and reportedly high valuations, Carl Choy, principal at CKW Financial Group, argued that the market itself is a long-term investor's best tool for growth and preservation of wealth.
“The market represents today’s view, every single day, of its value, of the future profits it’s going to generate over time,” said Choy. “Maybe that’s why it’s so hard to beat.”
Choy said that CKW does make tactical moves to overweight and underweight certain parts of the market -- but also believes that the U.S. stock market is more-or-less attractively valued on a historic and forward-looking basis.
King, on the other hand, still believes that U.S. equities are overvalued.
Part of the reason Choy feels so strongly about valuations is that he thinks our economic and fundamental measurements are outdated and may not apply as easily in the information age.
“We have to ask ourselves if the numbers we use to analyze things are still correct and relevant? How we calculate GDP in dollars, is that still relevant? Is CPI still relevant? How do we calculate technological improvements? I think GDP is understated,” said Choy. “When my kid goes out and buys a scooter and decides to deliver food for Uber Eats, that’s not considered business spending and it’s not calculated as business expenses; it’s some kid buying a scooter to deliver food on Uber Eats and it’s calculated as personal consumption.
“A new world is happening … technology improvements aren’t measured in CPI, and perhaps CPI should be negative instead of positive,” said Choy. “Maybe the spread between returns and whatever that is, is different, and we should consider how it impacts the risk to our industry. Maybe that’s why passive is beating active.”
Tactical ETF strategists take different approaches to create better outcomes for the end investor, said Mansi Singhal, co-founder of qplum, an online RIA.