Despite a more challenging political and geopolitical landscape than most expected, the global economy exceeded expectations in 2023. But while it is tempting to extrapolate from this experience and forecast a strong performance in 2024, such predictions must be approached with a healthy dose of caution. The consensus forecasts may very well miss the mark again, and the consequences could be worse this time.
Mohamed A. El-Erian, president of Queens’ College at the University of Cambridge, is a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and the author of "The Only Game in Town: Central Banks, Instability, and Avoiding the Next Collapse" (Random House, 2016) and a co-author (with Gordon Brown, Michael Spence, and Reid Lidow) of "Permacrisis: A Plan to Fix a Fractured World" (Simon & Schuster, 2023).