The roots of Trump’s troubles in Michigan may be deeper. There, 37% of voters say Trump treated the state more unfairly than most in responding to the coronavirus after the president feuded with Governor Gretchen Whitmer over her criticism of the federal response.
Biden’s improved polling in battleground states comes from a cross-section of demographic groups, but the Times poll shows the most significant movement comes among White voters -- especially college-educated ones -- and young people. He’s also flipped voters age 65 and older to his column, which helps to explain his standing in Florida and Arizona.
Biden isn’t doing much better than Clinton with Black and Hispanic voters, despite widespread discontent with Trump’s handling of the Black Lives Matter protests following the killing of George Floyd by Minneapolis police last month.
The Times poll shows neither candidate getting more than 50% support in any battleground state, suggesting that there’s still room for undecided voters to have an impact.
And state-level polling -- despite its key to forecasting the Electoral College result -- is generally less reliable than national polling. In 2016, national polls were largely accurate in predicting a popular vote win for Clinton but failed to anticipate Trump’s narrow victories in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
The margin of error for each state poll in the Times survey is plus-or-minus 4.1 to 4.6 percentage points.
This article was provided by Bloomberg News.