Unless the U.K. government suddenly reverts to Prime Minister Theresa May's earlier contention that "no deal is better than a bad deal," the net effect of the Brexit vote and the resulting hullabaloo may just be that the U.K. will simply lose its vote in the EU. The rest will remain as it is now for an indefinite period during which a new trade deal will be discussed in the standard EU fashion -- slowly, deliberately, with each of the 27 EU countries working through its own agenda until there's a consensus. And even then, the result may not be much different from the current one -- or from Norway's relationship with the EU, which includes an emergency brake on immigration (something the EU was willing to give the U.K. before it decided to leave, anyway) but not much economic or legal leeway.
One could argue that the Brexit vote has alarmed EU citizens enough to consider leaving the U.K. or simply staying away in the first place. But "Brexodus" may well be a myth. Though the latest data show a substantial drop in net migration from Eastern Europe, there is still a net inflow. Perhaps, for some Brexit voters, this reduction in immigration is adequate compensation for the current uncertainties and the loss of the U.K.'s vote. But for the rest of us, Brexit is beginning to look like a classic case of a mountain giving birth to a mouse.
This article was provided by Bloomberg News.