9. The bond bubble starts to leak, but negative rates continue abroad. Even though the U.S. economy is slowing, the 10-year Treasury yield approaches 2.5% and the yield curve steepens. Japan and China pull away from the Treasury auctions. Rather than economic fundamentals or inflation, supply and demand drive yields higher.
10. The problems with Boeing’s 737 Max are fixed and deliveries begin. The plane becomes a mainstay around the world, enabling airlines to operate more efficiently and increase profits. The stocks become market leaders.
‘Also Rans’
Every year there are always a few Surprises that do not make the Ten, because we either do not think they are as relevant as those on the basic list or we are not comfortable with the idea that they are “probable.”
11. Fears of an economic crisis in India are allayed. The emerging markets continue to have uneven performance but India recovers from decelerating growth. The Modi government continues business-friendly growth reforms, the economy grows at 6% and the market rises 20%.
12. Artificial intelligence begins to be viewed as a paper tiger. The AI jobs apocalypse fails to materialize, much as the Y2K bug failed to undermine the US economy 20 years earlier. Manufacturing jobs have already been automated and it proves harder to eliminate service jobs by using computer-based applications.
13. Economic problems in Russia intensify even though the price of oil rises. As a result, social unrest begins to spread. Putin’s cozy relationship with his circle of oligarchs becomes an issue and his influence as a world leader diminishes. He attempts to maintain his stature on the world stage through a closer association with China. In spite of serious differences, China and Russia appear prepared to face off against Europe and the United States.
14. Populism and inward thinking continue to spread globally, particularly in emerging markets. Anarchy and disharmony spread throughout the world, creating turbulence in financial markets everywhere. Investors turn away from emerging market local currency debt, forcing spreads higher.
15. North Korea agrees to suspend its nuclear development program after another meeting with President Trump, but does not give up its existing stockpile. Kim Jong-un halts work on a long-range missile capable of reaching the United States. North Korea continues to be a threat, but not an imminent danger.