Still, another prevalent concern is whether Trump is too unpredictable to trust. While the Democrats traditionally care focus more on human rights and collaborate with allies to pressure Beijing, overall they treat China with respect and work through established institutions.

“I don’t think Xi would like to see Trump re-elected,” said Shi Yinhong, a foreign affairs adviser to the State Council and director of Renmin University’s Center on American Studies in Beijing. “Any Democrat would be less brutal.”

No matter what happens in 2020, though, most in Beijing agreed that China needs to be prepared for a protracted confrontation. There are many reasons to think that’s wise.

Chinese and American negotiators have yet to sit down for face-to-face meetings since Xi and Trump shook hands on a truce. Before they do, they’ll first need to figure out where to pick up the pieces.

Both sides differ publicly on how the talks broke down in early May, and Trump’s moves since then to both raise tariffs and blacklist telecom equipment giant Huawei Technologies Co. have narrowed the space for Xi to maneuver.

Unequal Treaties

The biggest sticking point from China’s perspective is a U.S. demand to keep the punitive tariffs in place until Beijing actually implements reforms to state-owned enterprises and intellectual property. It’s politically unfeasible for Xi to accept any deal that doesn’t remove the tariffs: Nationalists in the Communist Party are pressuring him to avoid signing an “unequal treaty” reminiscent of those China signed with colonial powers.

This debate has picked up in China over the past month, with the party’s flagship People’s Daily newspaper warning obliquely in editorials that unidentified “capitulators” wanted China “to be a vassal, controlled and working for the United States.” The episode has undermined China’s trade negotiators, according to Wang Huiyao, an adviser to China’s cabinet and founder of Center for China and Globalization.

Moreover, Chinese negotiators faced resistance from other departments when the draft text was circulated within the government, Wang said. While neither side has specifically mentioned what caused the talks to break down, American officials have hinted that China reneged on changing laws regarding forced technology transfer and cybersecurity.

‘Politically Incorrect’