As U.S. trade officials prepare to host their Chinese counterparts for the 13th round of negotiations starting Thursday, there’s been plenty of focus on the extra pressure President Donald Trump is applying heading into the talks.

But don’t forget the indirect leverage that Beijing wields, too: Christmas, and the love Americans have for the season of receiving.

Barring a deal this week, the U.S. plans to raise tariffs to 30% from 25% on $250 billion of Chinese imports starting Tuesday. The real wallop to American wallets would come Dec. 15, when a 15% import tax hits the rest of Chinese products including smartphones, laptops and kids toys. It’s a shot fired by Trump that could ricochet economically and politically. Largely spared tariffs so far, Made-in-China consumer items would get pricier in the middle of the busiest shopping month of the year.

So as the U.S. economy slows, the trade war intensifies and an impeachment probe swirls around the president, a question arises that should worry Trump’s advisers: How much more can the American psyche withstand before all the gloom dulls the urge to spend?

Recent measures of consumer confidence have stumbled but not fallen that much, so there’s an argument for resilience. But a weak September employment report last Friday might be a sign of a crack in a tight labor market that could widen if consumers retrench. With manufacturing soft and business investment tentative, Morgan Stanley economists have warned that U.S. consumers are all that stand in the way of a recession.

On the eve of the talks, both sides are jockeying for position. The Trump administration blacklisted Chinese companies and is slapping visa bans on officials linked to the mass detention of Muslims. Chinese officials say they’d accept a limited deal as long as no more tariffs are imposed. Whether Trump accepts the terms of a little agreement after saying he wants a big one may depend partly on how worried he is about spoiling his nation’s Christmas.

Beijing sounded stoic on Wednesday, likening Trump’s latest moves to an overly aggressive poker player whose game is best met with patience and a solid defense.

“China has already seen many U.S. cards,” according to an editorial in the Communist Party-run Global Times newspaper, published Tuesday evening in Chinese and English. “It is completely unrealistic for the U.S. to surprise China with a new card.”

This article was provided by Bloomberg News.