The year 2022 will be a critical one in the history of the world. In a few days, China—the world’s most powerful authoritarian state—will begin hosting the Winter Olympics, and, like Germany in 1936, it will attempt to use the spectacle to score a propaganda victory for its system of strict controls.
We are at, or close to, important decisions that will determine the direction in which the world is going. A new German government was formed late last year, and the French presidential election is set for April. In the same month, Hungary’s voters may—against great odds—turn their authoritarian ruler out of power. Together with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision on whether to invade Ukraine, these developments will help determine the fate of Europe.
In October, moreover, China’s 20th Party Congress will decide whether to give President Xi Jinping a third term as General Secretary. Then, the United States will hold a crucial mid-term election in November.
Climate change will remain a paramount policy challenge for the world, but the dominant geopolitical feature of today’s world is the escalating conflict between systems of governance that are diametrically opposed to each other. Let me define the difference as simply as I can.
In an open society, the role of the state is to protect the freedom of the individual. In a closed society, the role of the individual is to serve the rulers of the state. As the founder of the Open Society Foundations, obviously I am on the side of open societies. But in a world teetering on the edge of military aggression, both in Ukraine and in Taiwan, the victory of open societies cannot be taken for granted. So, the most urgent question now is: Which system will prevail?
Open Or Shut
Each system has strengths and weaknesses. Open societies unleash the creative and innovative energies of people, while closed societies concentrate power in the hands of a one-party state. Those are the strengths. The weaknesses are more specific to local and regional conditions. For example, the relationship between the European Union and its member states is still evolving. The EU ought to protect Lithuania, which recognized Taiwan, from an unofficial blockade by China, but will it?
US President Joe Biden has generally adopted the right policies. He told Putin that Russia will pay a heavy price if it invades Ukraine, but the US will not go to war to defend Ukraine. If Putin attacks, the heaviest penalty he will face will be greater transatlantic cooperation. The Biden administration won’t offer any unilateral concessions but seeks a peaceful solution. The choice now is up to Putin.
At the same time, Biden has made it clear to Xi that if he uses force against Taiwan, China will have to confront not only the US but also a larger alliance, composed of Australia and the United Kingdom (which last year formed the AUKUS grouping with the US) and Japan and India (which together with Australia and the US comprise the so-called Quad), with a number of other potential allies that are not yet fully committed to joint action, such as South Korea and the Philippines. Japan is the country that has most fully committed to defending Taiwan.
Xi, however, has declared that he is determined to assert China’s sovereignty over Taiwan by force if necessary. He is devoting enormous resources to armaments. Recently, China surprised the world by demonstrating a nuclear-capable hypersonic controllable missile.
The US has nothing comparable and doesn’t intend to compete. I think that is the right policy, because China’s hypersonic achievement does not change the dynamic of mutual assured destruction that will stop the enemies from attacking each other. The missile is merely a propaganda victory. Still, war between the US and its enemies has become more plausible, and that is not a pleasant subject to contemplate.
A Brief History Of The Present
Recently, I have asked myself, how did the current situation arise? When I embarked on what I call my political philanthropy in the 1980s, American superiority was not in question. Why is that no longer the case?
Part of the answer is to be found in technological progress, most of which is based on artificial intelligence, which was in its infancy in the 1980s. The development of AI and the rise of social media and tech platforms evolved together. This has produced very profitable companies that have become so powerful that no one can compete against them, though they can compete against each other. These companies have come to dominate the global economy. They are multinational, and their reach extends to every corner of the world. We can all name them: Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft, and Amazon. There are similar conglomerates in China, but their names are less familiar in the West.