The test also subjects the trading operations of the six biggest U.S. banks -- JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley -- to portfolio "shocks" based on asset price moves in the second half of 2008.

"This is similar to what we saw them do in the original stress tests in 2009," said Andrew Marquardt, an analyst at New York-based Evercore Partners Inc. "That will be more painful for those banks. In 2009, that was a particular point of contention."

Citigroup, the third-biggest U.S. lender, has been touting a 2012 payout since October 2010, when CEO Vikram Pandit said shareholders could gain from a "return" of capital. Pandit, 54, introduced a 1-cent dividend in May after scrapping the payout in February 2009.

"Our plans have not changed," Jon Diat, a spokesman for New York-based Citigroup, said in an e-mailed statement yesterday. "Subject to regulatory approval, Citi intends to begin returning capital to shareholders next year and believes the pace of return can increase in 2013 and beyond as economic conditions improve."

Citi Holdings

A 2012 payout also depends on the firm reducing unwanted assets in its Citi Holdings division while taking advantage of tax benefits, Diat said.

Bank of America CEO Brian T. Moynihan, 52, who already backtracked on plans to raise the dividend earlier this year, may not be able to increase the payout in 2012 either, analysts including Miller and Marquardt said.

"We will ask for a dividend when we're darn well sure that we'll get approval, and we're not going to ask for it a minute before," Moynihan said during an Aug. 10 conference call with investors. "This is one that I've had no success on so far" in predicting, he said. The firm had a 64-cent quarterly payout until 2008. Jerry Dubrowski, a Bank of America spokesman, declined to comment on the Fed announcement.

Healthier U.S. banks, including Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley may be allowed to buy back some stock and moderately raise dividends next year, Miller said.

'Good Fundamentals'

"This is further confirmation that we will have a growing divergence among the bank group, between those with good fundamentals able to deploy capital versus those who are not there yet," Evercore's Marquardt said, citing Citigroup and Charlotte, North Carolina-based Bank of America as lenders whose plans to return capital may be curtailed.