Congress must decide soon on a path to raise the debt ceiling, fund the government and approve a massive North American trade deal -- putting pressure on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to quickly wrangle a restive Democratic caucus that has an eye on the 2020 elections.
Lawmakers return Tuesday from their July 4 break, facing September deadlines on must-pass fiscal bills, with just three weeks before their next recess to come up with a plan. Bipartisan talks this month will aim to set up high-stakes votes in the fall, but first Pelosi has to know where her members stand and to what extent they’ll accept compromise.
Progressive Democrats are pushing her to use these negotiations to increase domestic spending and demand Senate action on some House-passed Democratic policies -- but lack of consensus within the party risks weakening her hand in negotiations with Republicans.
“One of the challenges we are facing is putting up 218 votes within our own caucus,” said Michigan Representative Dan Kildee, referring to the number of votes normally needed for a House majority.
Pelosi has navigated multidimensional negotiations before, but this month’s talks with Republicans will unfold as her party ramps up its effort to unseat President Donald Trump and regain control of the Senate in the 2020 election. At the same time, with former Special Counsel Robert Mueller set to testify next week before two House committees on his investigation into Russian interference with the 2016 election, some Democrats will likely intensify their calls to impeach Trump.
Debt Limit Deal
One of the most contentious negotiations will be on spending levels. Congress still has to appropriate funds to keep the government open in the fiscal year that begins Oct. 1, which requires a bipartisan deal on total spending levels for defense and non-defense domestic programs and agencies. Without an agreement, current law would slash federal outlays by $126 billion in December.
Pelosi says those negotiations should include a deal to raise the debt limit. While previous revenue projections estimated that the Treasury Department could stretch so-called extraordinary measures as long as November to still meet payment obligations, the Bipartisan Policy Center said Monday that the default risk could arrive by early September.
Lawmakers from both parties say Congress will raise this borrowing limit in time. It is this imperative that makes the measure an attractive vehicle for other deals.
A meeting last month among congressional leaders, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and other White House officials ended in acrimony when Republicans complained that Democrats were demanding more spending. While no further meetings are currently scheduled, Alabama Senator Richard Shelby, the Republican who chairs the Appropriations Committee, said Tuesday he’s urging leaders to work out a deal to fund the government and raise the debt limit as soon as possible.