Just as Russian President Vladimir Putin has attempted to justify his unconscionable aggression in Ukraine as a defense against NATO enlargement, China’s longstanding fears of American containment play to similar anxieties within Chinese leadership circles. Henry Kissinger, the architect of the modern-day US-China policy, recently warned of America’s penchant for “endless confrontation” with China and appealed for “Nixonian flexibility” to resolve an increasingly dangerous conflict. But, as I argue in my upcoming book, Accidental Conflict, it will take far more than that to bring Sino-American conflict escalation to an end.
Globalization was always a catchy term in search of a theory. Yes, trade was the glue that fostered integration of the world economy. But it was hardly the rising tide that lifted all boats. With the world beset by climate change, pandemics, and a shocking new war in Europe – to say nothing of mounting inequality and related social and political tensions – the defense of globalization is in tatters. And China may well have the most to lose.
Stephen S. Roach, former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and the firm's chief economist, is a senior fellow at Yale University's Jackson Institute of Global Affairs and a senior lecturer at Yale's School of Management. He is the author of "Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China."