Even so, critics contend the Fed should be more aggressive, but its measured approach now seems prudent. Real gross domestic product contracted 1.6% in the first quarter, and the Atlanta Fed estimates another contraction of 1.6% in the second, so the U.S. may already be in a recession. The fact that it doesn’t feel that way to a lot of people is a testament to the balancing act the Fed has pulled off so far. If the Fed manages to bring down inflation with only a mild recession—a so-called soft landing—it will be a significant coup. More draconian measures may yet be necessary, but given the damage they would do to the economy, it’s sensible to see if a lighter touch is enough. 

I suspect some of the criticism also stems from disapproval of previous Fed interventions, some of which I share. I would not have lowered interest rates as much as the central bank did in response to the dot-com bust in the early 2000s. I also understand the anger many feel about having to rescue Wall Street banks in 2008 after they nearly brought down the financial system. Those were different Feds, though, and it wouldn’t be fair to tar this Fed with that history.

Nor is it fair to expect the Fed to have seen this bout of inflation coming. No one can reliably predict inflation; if that were possible, inflation wouldn’t be a problem because central bankers would always preempt it. There were numerous predictions after the financial crisis that the trillions of dollars marshaled to revive the financial system would spark runaway inflation, but inflation never came.

The reality is that a data-driven approach to monetary policy, which the Fed is right to pursue, will always be a step slow because economic numbers come with a lag. But looking back at the data available to the Fed and the decisions it undertook in response, it appears to have done as well as anyone can reasonably expect.

Nir Kaissar is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering markets. He is the founder of Unison Advisors, an asset management firm.