New York Times columnist Paul Krugman tweeted: “America’s disastrous pandemic response, in one picture.” The picture was a chart showing Florida’s seven-day average of positive Covid-19 cases:

“DeSantis has lost control of Florida’s Covid-19 response,” said Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, a Democrat. She accused him of “recklessly reopening Florida despite the data screaming for caution.” Another critic, Florida International University pandemic expert Aileen Marty, described DeSantis as “shooting himself in the foot.” She added, “It is a horrible situation. But he thinks in downplaying the threat of the virus that’s going to help the economy.”

But how dire is the threat to Florida? The answer is that although the increase in positive cases is worrisome, it is far from clear that disaster is right around the corner.

There is no denying that the increase in new positive cases has been setting daily records. On June 1, the Florida health department reported 602 new cases. By June 6, there were 1,400. The daily number kept climbing until it reached 5,472 on Tuesday. In the early part of June, much of the rise was due to a significant increase in testing. But by the middle of the month, the number of daily tests had leveled off—yet the number of positive cases kept rising.

What hasn’t risen is the number of daily deaths; in fact, that number is going down—from 41 on June 2 to seven on June 23. (The numbers for the past two weeks could be revised higher because of delays in reporting.) And while hospitalizations have risen, they haven’t gone up nearly as fast as positive cases; the state’s hospitals still seem to have more than enough capacity. Yes, deaths are a lagging indicator, but one would have expected the trend line to start climbing by now. It hasn’t. (It’s worth noting that Rebekah Jones’s numbers are only marginally different from the state’s data.)

What appears to be happening is that while the older, more vulnerable population is taking precautions—and Florida nursing homes are still in lockdown—many younger Floridians have viewed Phase 2 as their signal to throw caution to the wind.

“Too many bars have not been compliant,” said Charles Lockwood, a scientist who heads the Morsani College of Medicine at the University of South Florida. They’ve created party atmospheres, with young people, without masks, crowded together, having a good time—and spreading Covid-19. Lockwood told me that the average age of a Floridian with the virus has dropped to younger than 34 from 62.5.