Scientists suspect these mutations are making it easier for the spike protein to attach. The new strain is thought to be 57% to 70% more transmissible than other strains of the virus.
U.K. Prevalence
In the U.K., the new variant was responsible for 62% of Covid-19 infections in London in the week ending Dec. 9, up from 28% in early November, according to Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia’s Norwich School of Medicine. Cases have also been identified in more than a dozen other countries, including Australia, Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, Lebanon, the Netherlands, Singapore and South Korea.
In Colorado, state scientists are attempting to do full genetic sequencing on any samples that show signs of the U.K. variant, according to state scientific director Emily Travanty. Samples are flagged when only two of the three genes targeted by the gold-standard PCR tests used by the state are found, indicating a mutation has occurred in the third — the critical spike protein.
The missing gene is present, according to Travanty, but rendered undetectable by the test because of the mutation, making it a signature of the variant, she said. When laboratories find that red flag, it indicates more investigation is needed.
Much Unknown
“There is a lot we don’t know about this variant,” Colorado Governor Jared Polis said last week after the first U.S. case was discovered in his state. “But if it does transmit more quickly, more people will get it and more people will be hospitalized.”
Still, there are some positive findings related to the variant. It is apparently not any deadlier, though if more people are infected, there would be more deaths. And it is not thought to be able to overcome the two vaccines already being distributed in the U.S., the Pfizer Inc.-BioNTech SE shot, and the Moderna Inc. shot.
“There is a good news here,” Topol said. “It will not affect the vaccine’s efficacy. That’s why there is this race. If we get ahead of this and get everyone vaccinated, if we do that quickly, we will have this virus under control.”
Speed Of Transmission
Meanwhile, in the U.K., the added speed of transmission thought to be related to the new strain has been noticeable. The number of new cases has risen dramatically in recent weeks, even as the country instituted stronger and stronger lockdowns, said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
In the U.S., mask-wearing and social distancing have often been more a political issue than a public health one, with at least one adviser to President Donald Trump suggesting that herd immunity, which occurs when enough people become immune to a disease to make its spread unlikely, can be reached by simply letting the disease run free.
While that theory could be more easily tested by letting the new variant run wild, the cost would be considerable more cases and deaths among Americans. The best idea is to get the country to herd immunity based on higher rates of vaccination, not transmission, Osterholm said.
”Getting there with infection or vaccination, with protection or disease — we will get there,” Ossterholm said. “Our job is to minimize disease-related protection.”
Drift Over Time
The virus’s makeup will drift over time as is the case with all viruses, scientists suggest, and the changes could eventually warrant a new vaccine. But that could take years, they said.
Still, the risk exists that the virus could build off the new variant, creating more devastating mutations that could trigger more severe disease or render vaccines and therapeutics ineffective.
“Every time it accumulates new changes, it opens up the landscape for where the virus can evolve into,” according to Pekosz at Johns Hopkins. “This virus is mutating, but is it evolving? We don’t know yet. That’s why we have to monitor the changes.”
Take influenza, for example. When it interacts with people who have immune protection, it will mutate to get around that immunity, Pekosz said. Measles, on the other hand, tends to die off.
“The coronavirus hasn’t seen enough people with immunity to it to let us predict what it’s going to do,” he said.
—With assistance from Angelica LaVito.
This article was provided by Bloomberg News.