Once again, it’s time for our monthly update on risk factors that have proven to be good indicators of economic trouble ahead. After flashing a yellow light for the last several months, the change in consumer confidence indicator has declined even further, moving closer to the worry zone. Some signs of weakness are also appearing in other areas, such as the yield curve indicator.
For the economy as a whole, the risk still does not appear to be immediate, but it is rising. That said, many of the signs of a slowdown may be passing on a forward-looking basis, so my overall outlook remains positive—although less so than it was a couple of months ago.