Doug Bibby, president of the National Multifamily Housing Council, said he went into April “terrified” of how spiking unemployment would hurt his trade group’s members, which are predominantly apartment-leasing firms. “I was expecting the worst. I really was. We got through April. I thought this can’t keep going in May. The May numbers were better,” he said.

Anecdotally, the group’s members say the enhanced unemployment benefits approved by Congress through July 31 have kept renters paying even if they lost income.

If those benefits end without replacement, “we’re really concerned,” said Caitlin Walter, the trade group’s vice president of research.

When Congress passed the law allowing mortgage borrowers to skip payments for as long as a year, a mortgage industry trade group predicted as many as one in four loans would enter forbearance programs.

Instead, the forbearance rate has stalled at about 8.7%, according to real-estate data firm Black Knight Inc. What’s more, many borrowers who asked for forbearance have kept making mortgage payments anyway, servicers say.

“It turned out to be a better situation than we all anticipated,” said Bill Banfield, executive vice president of capital markets for Quicken Loans Inc. Banfield said Quicken and other firms have seen upwards of 40% of borrowers in forbearance continue to pay.

At Mr. Cooper Group Inc., one of the nation’s biggest mortgage companies, the daily number of homeowners entering forbearance has fallen by about 90%, and more borrowers are exiting forbearance plans than entering, said Chief Credit Officer Kurt Johnson.

Mat Ishbia, chief executive officer of United Wholesale Mortgage, reckons that low interest rates and pent up demand will fuel an economic comeback, and the next 12 months could mark the best year in the history of U.S. housing. The “great, great majority” of borrowers facing hardship now will soon find their footing and resume paying off their mortgages, he said.

Households Preparing
Much of that prediction stems from clear signs that households are getting their finances in order to prepare for the risk of a prolonged recession. They’ve largely shunned additional borrowing and instead have paid down their debt, according to credit bureau TransUnion.

Matt Komos, who leads the company’s U.S. financial services research and consulting, said borrower behavior during the pandemic suggests that even if the economy worsens “they’re going to do whatever they can to keep their homes.”