How will voluntary social distancing play out? Even if omicron is much safer than delta, it still will involve some risk, including for the vaccinated. And, due to its rapid rise, the peak of omicron may be occurring in a short but intense burst. Perhaps many people will be OK if they know that they need only stay inside for a few weeks.
But even a short self-imposed lockdown could cause significant supply-chain problems. The brighter side of that calculus is that many of those problems might be temporary, because an omicron that arrives quickly may fade quickly as well.
What about travel? Many more Americans will be afraid to go abroad. As it now stands, they need to test negative in order to re-enter the country. In January or February, however, the chance of a positive test result might be at an all-time high, even if you are feeling just fine. So there is a risk of a collapse in international travel.
All this is speculation, of course. There are many other possible scenarios, including those with a much higher number of deaths. But the upshot is the same: Even the relatively positive scenarios will create major new problems early in 2022.
Oh, and before I forget: Happy new year.
Tyler Cowen is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is a professor of economics at George Mason University and writes for the blog Marginal Revolution. His books include The Complacent Class: The Self-Defeating Quest for the American Dream.