These future disruptions can be anticipated and even timed to some extent by tracking cost-per unit – DNA sequencing, solar modules and artificial intelligence, all moving exponentially, could change the world as we know it.
DNA sequencing has gone from costing approximately $2.7 billion in 2000 to around $800 today. Ismail predicts that it will cost $100 by the end of 2018, and only a penny by the end of the decade.
“It will be cheaper to sequence your genome than it will be to flush your toilet,” Ismail said. “Now we’re starting to write within the genome… the technology to do this has become so trivial that you can now re-sequence DNA in your bedroom. It’s very surreal.”
While the ability to write within DNA means diseases like HIV may soon be edited out of existence, a shift towards envisioning the human body as its own small, contained biome with a balance of bacteria may lead to new, inexpensive treatments for type-two diabetes and Parkinson’s Disease no more complicated than specially-made yogurts or milkshakes.
Solar cells have been doubling in price performance every 32 months, said Ismail, meaning that the cost of delivering a watt of solar power, now $0.20 cents, is lower than that of coal. As of November this year, solar will be cheaper than the energy coming of the U.S. power grid.
“In 16 years, all the world’s energy need will be delivered by solar,” Ismail said. “The Canadian oil sands will never be tapped. Fracking is done. The Keystone Pipeline? We won’t use it because oil is done… we’re looking at an abundance of energy.”
While batter technology that might offer consumers the ability to store solar power for dark and rainy days has not yet caught up to solar energy’s needs, by 2033 batteries will be sophisticated enough so that the business model of utilities companies can no longer exist, said Ismail.
Artificial intelligence may make it’s biggest impact felt through autonomous driving, according to Ismail.
“We’ll increase the traffic capacity of our existing roads and highways by 10 to 15 times,” Ismail said, which will result in a sharp decline in real estate values in inner cities. As drones take on responsibility for more local deliveries, there will be fewer slow-moving trucks – and long-distance trucks are already shifting to autonomous drivers. “This is real today. We have about 3 million truck drivers across the U.S. who will have their jobs automated.”
As a result of all this likely disruption, the biotechnology, oil, gas, transportation and real estate industries face evolution, or extinction, said Ismail.