They also see how that limits Washington’s ability to act as a deterrent elswhere and have identified the Balkans as another place the poses the risk. A September siege in a Kosovo monastery was the deadliest inter-ethnic clash there in almost two decades although tensions in Bosnia are a bigger concern to officials in Kyiv.
North Korea
One serving US official said it was possible that North Korea or others seek to take advantage of the moment by testing inter-continental ballistic missiles, or by launching a nuclear test.
In September, Pyongyang committed to “exponential” growth of its nuclear arsenal in defiance of US requests to return to stalled negotations.
The Caucasus
Some European Union states are worried that Azerbaijan could be tempted to follow up its September victory in Nagorno-Karabakh with an invasion of Armenia. France, according to documents seen by Bloomberg, has been pushing other EU members to respond by boosting their support for Armenia and considering sanctions should Baku make a move on Armenia — something of which Aliyev has ruled out.
A wider conflict in the region would be extremely complex, since Russia also has a defense pact with Armenia and a military base in the country while NATO-member Turkey signed a defense agreement with Baku after helping Azerbaijan win a 2020 war with Armenia that killed thousands on both sides.
This article was provided by Bloomberg News.