Some indicators of longer-run inflation are starting to move higher, a sign that the Fed is at least getting the public’s outlook pointing in the right direction. The rate on the five-year, five-year forward swap contract for consumer-price inflation is hovering around 2.4%.
That is up from a low last year of just under 1% during the peak pandemic lock down period. When adjusting for measurement differences between CPI and the Fed’s preferred measure—the personal consumption expenditures price index—it puts longer-run inflation pricing in at just a touch over the central bank’s 2% target.
However, some market watchers—like Fed policy makers—see an enduring rise in inflation as a challenge.
Interest-rate derivative markets don’t foresee the Fed lifting its policy rate beyond about 2% during the upcoming tightening cycle. That’s below the 2.5% Fed officials forecast last month for their long-run policy rate. This backdrop signals that traders don’t see much risk of inflation unmooring or growth getting too robust before the next downturn.
“We are looking for a core CPI running closer to 1.9% or so,” after temporary base effects filter through the data, said Phoebe White, interest-rate strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. “That’s still pretty soft and we think the underlying trend in inflation is going to be pretty gradual to build as we look into 2022.”
There are a range of forces that are likely to keep inflation low from the Fed’s perspective, including the millions of still-unemployed Americans. Slow changes in pandemic behavior—even as vaccines roll out—weak wage-bargaining power and an aging workforce could also keep overall demand moderate and prices muted.
“We are of the view that we are going to continue to be in a lower inflationary environment both in the U.S. and globally,” said Steven Oh, head of fixed income at PineBridge Investments. “We are not necessarily going to be successful in reaching inflation targets on a sustainable basis.”
The Fed also has limited tools. In its recent statement, the Fed pledged to keep rates at zero until “inflation has risen to 2% and is on track to moderately exceed 2% for some time.” But a pledge to do nothing also raises questions about the potency of policy. The U.S. central bank has a legacy of missing its 2% inflation target consistently since it was installed in 2012.
“Really it’s about changing peoples’ mindsets and experience for the last ten years,” said Tiffany Wilding, economist at Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co.“You are going to need several periods, maybe several years, of inflation that is running above the Fed’s 2% target to really anchor those expectations, because they have moved down.”
This article was provided by Bloomberg News.