Officials in September forecast rates would reach 4.6% by the end of this year and 4.8% in 2023 -- implying a half-point hike in December and a final quarter-point move next year. They will update their quarterly projections next month.
“In the upcoming months, in light of the cumulative tightening we have achieved, I expect we will slow the pace of our rate hikes as we approach a sufficiently restrictive stance,” Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said at a separate event. “But I want to be clear: A rate hike of 50 basis points would still be significant.”
The Philadelphia Fed chief isn’t forecasting a recession and said growth should slow to 1.5% next year. The unemployment rate will likely rise to 4.5% next year, he said, and then fall to 4% in 2024 with inflation moderating to 2.5% that year.
This article was provided by Bloomberg News.