The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week and again later this year, but the U.S. central bank is not entering an extended cycle of easing monetary policy, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
“If the Fed is successful it will hike rates again before the next recession,” said Constance Hunter, chief economist at KPMG LLP, in her survey response.
Despite the anticipated cut, those polled didn’t expect officials to halt the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet runoff before its scheduled end in September.
Respondents to a July 19-23 poll overwhelmingly chose a quarter-percentage-point rate cut as the most likely outcome of next week’s Federal Open Market Committee gathering. That outcome received a median probability of 80%. A half-point cut garnered a median 10% response, and a decision to leave rates unchanged a median 5%.
In a similar June survey, with international trade disputes casting a shadow over the global economic outlook and inflation staying low, economists were already anticipating a half-point, downward adjustment for rates, with cuts coming in December and July 2020. The median projection from respondents then saw the Fed’s target range remaining at 1.75% to 2% at least through the end of 2021.
Now, after Fed officials signaled a greater willingness to guard against a deeper slowdown, economists anticipate decreases this July and October.
That still doesn’t catch up with financial market sentiment. Pricing in federal funds futures contracts imply that investors expect the Fed to cut its benchmark rate by three-quarters of a percentage point by year’s end.
The FOMC is scheduled to release a statement at 2 p.m. July 31. Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a news conference at 2:30 p.m. Officials won’t update their quarterly forecasts, including the dot plot of interest-rate projections, until their next meeting in September.
Economists continued to dismiss the idea that President Donald Trump’s incessant criticism of Fed officials would affect policy decisions. Nearly three quarters said it would have no impact, while 20% said it would make a cut more likely and 6% said it would make a cut less likely.
While a rate cut is widely expected among economists and investors, many also anticipate that one or two voting members of the FOMC will oppose a decrease. Kansas City Fed President Esther George and Boston’s Eric Rosengren were tapped by nearly half of the economists as likely dissenters.