While the coronavirus continues to spread its health hazards across the world, it also is spreading financial problems outside of China, said David Joy, Ameriprise’s chief market strategist.
Markets in the United States and Japan, as well as China, are starting to react to the fear that tourism and economies as a whole will be affected, although how long it will last is not known as yet, Joy said in an e-mail Monday.
“Worries about the economic impact of the coronavirus caught up with global equity markets last week,” Joy said. “Last Thursday, China’s Shanghai Composite index fell by 2.8% and the Shenzhen Composite shed 3.5% before both subsequently closed for the Lunar New Year holiday.”
The S&P 500 dropped slightly on Friday, and at the start of this week the Japanese Nikkei fell 2%. European stocks are also down, and U.S. futures are taking a hit, he said.
At this point the coronavirus, which started in Wuhan, China, continues to spread. In the U.S., the Centers for Disease Control confirmed five cases in four states as of early Tuesday morning (California, Washington, Arizona and Illinois) and there are reportedly cases being investigated as far as New York and New Jersey. Chinese news said the official death toll as of early Tuesday was 106, with 4,515 confirmed cases. According to news reports, that was a 60% overnight increase.
There are confirmed cases of the virus now in 16 countries according to the CDC. The Chinese government has taken measures to contain the spread of the virus, but how effective they will be remains to be seen. The New Year holiday has been extended several days, and many celebrations have been canceled. Travel is restricted, especially in Hubei province, where the city of Wuhan is virtually quarantined, news reports said.
“It is too soon to quantify the ultimate impact of the virus on the Chinese economy,” Joy said. “That will depend upon how quickly the virus can be brought under control. But clearly, certain sectors will be particularly hard hit, including travel, tourism, restaurants and other leisure activities, as we saw in previous public health emergencies in China, including the SARS outbreak.”
“If prior episodes of health emergencies are any guide, and assuming the coronavirus will ultimately be contained within a time frame similar to prior episodes, the negative impact on economic activity and markets is likely to prove to be temporary. Both will recover in time,” he added.
“For the long-term investor, that means it is prudent to stay the course despite the near-term negativity,” he said. “But such fortitude may well be tested in the near term. Inasmuch as the coronavirus continues to spread, with no available vaccine, the fear and uncertainty it is causing are likely to intensify in the near term.”