Franklin + Invesco
The scenario: Franklin Resources Inc. ($24.3 billion market cap) buys Invesco Ltd. ($13.5 billion).
Franklin is a big money manager that has gotten smaller. Its assets have shrunk to $729 billion from $920 billion in June 2014 as investors pulled cash from funds like Michael Hasenstab’s Templeton Global Bond Fund, which slumped with emerging markets in 2015 before rebounding last year.
Acquiring Invesco, with more than $800 billion in assets, would expand Franklin in a hurry. The deal would give it added exposure to the fast-growing ETF business -- Invesco’s PowerShares has more than $100 billion -- as well as a much larger presence in Europe through the Perpetual unit, a U.K. retail fund manager. Another plus: the companies know each other. Invesco CEO Martin Flanagan was previously chief financial officer and co-CEO of Franklin.
Figuring out who would run the combined company might be a problem, not only because the two firms are similar in size but also because the CEOs are close in age: Flanagan is 56, Franklin’s Gregory Johnson is 55. Johnson’s family owns a major stake in Franklin, which could give him the edge. There could also be a messier-than-usual task of eliminating overlapping jobs and products.
With more than $8 billion of cash on the balance sheet, Franklin has the resources to make such a major acquisition. Asset management is a “slower growth, more mature business,” Johnson said on an October earnings call, yet “one way to gain efficiencies is through consolidation. Companies will be more open to that avenue to create value.”
Other possibilities: Franklin could set more modest sights going after WisdomTree Investments Inc., the only pure-play publicly traded ETF provider. WisdomTree, known for its “smart beta,” or rules-based, investing strategy, comes with baggage. Its two biggest products, currency-hedged funds that provide exposure to European and Japanese equities, both suffered sizable redemptions in 2016 -- one reason the company’s stock fell 29 percent. Still, the firm has an established name in the $2.6 trillion U.S. ETF market.
Aberdeen + Artisan
The scenario: Aberdeen Asset Management Plc (3.5 billion pound, or $4.4 billion, market cap) buys Artisan Partners.
Cross-border takeovers appear to be on the rise, and Aberdeen’s Martin Gilbert may have a touch of Janus jealousy. The U.K. money manager’s CEO called the Janus-Henderson pairing “very smart,” telling journalists on a November conference call, “We’d like to do something like that.”
Aberdeen suffered redemptions of 32.8 billion pounds in the year ended Sept. 30 as clients bailed on its emerging-market funds. The company is heavily dependent on its home turf -- 76 percent of its money comes from the U.K. and the rest of Europe, only 16 percent from the Americas, according to its website.