Don’t worry about Fox. It’ll be OK without Bill O’Reilly.
The country’s most-watched cable network is doing so well that the departure of the star of “The O’Reilly Factor” isn’t likely to be a huge financial blow. That’s even though the show was the biggest draw on Fox News, which has been 21st Century Fox’s most profitable channel, bringing in what one estimate puts at $200 million annually in advertising revenue.
“The growth in the network is overwhelming any advertiser issues” that will crop up now that O’Reilly is out and Tucker Carlson is stepping into the prime-time slot, said Brian Wieser, an analyst at Pivotal Research LLC who has a buy rating on the stock. O’Reilly took his leave Wednesday afternoon, and Fox shares fell 0.9 percent to $30.39 at the close in New York.
Fox doesn’t break out how much any one channel or program contributes to the bottom line. S&P Global Inc.’s Kagan research unit estimates that Fox News was responsible for about one-fourth of the company’s 2016 operating income, which was $6.6 billion.
O’Reilly’s exit will probably cost just a couple of percentage points in ad sales, before factoring in the network’s expected growth over the next year, Wieser said. “Investors wouldn’t really notice the impact.”
That’s not to say there won’t be any painful ripples. The hard-charging host had been on the air since the 1996 birth of Fox News. O’Reilly was “a ratings machine,” said Vijay Jayant, an analyst at Evercore ISI, in a note to clients.
Consistent Messaging
Recent history shows, though, that Fox News can handle it when individual personalities walk. There was little fallout in 2011 after Glenn Beck quit. His talk-show was replaced with the group-format “The Five” that has done so well it’s moving into a prime-time slot next week. (Beck weighed in on Twitter Wednesday, saying, “With Bill O’Reilly gone, it’s the Beginning of the End of Fox News as We Know It.”)
After Megyn Kelly jumped to NBC in January, Carlson replaced her at 9 p.m., and his ratings beat hers.
“Fox News’s dominance stems from the consistency of its messaging and the loyalty of its broader audience more than from the success of star anchors,” said Jayant, who has an outperform rating on the stock.