The solution to some of our biggest economic problems is staring us in the face. Or more accurately, it's beating on our door.
Among the many aspects of U.S. immigration policy that need rethinking, one of the most urgent is how we handle migrants on temporary work visas. Focusing on a more sensible approach to that program would not only ease the pressure of illegal immigration at the border, but provide some price relief in our overheated economy, as well.
Immigration dropped off during the pandemic. Borders and embassies were closed. This produced fewer entries and a backlog of more than 420,000 visa applications. Economists estimate that the economy is missing about two million workers from the labor force because of the lack of migration. They estimate about half of the lost migrants are highly skilled, college-educated workers. They argue their absence is contributing to the labor shortages that are driving up wages and contributing to inflation.
So as the world reopens, there is going to be a lot of pent-up migration. Data from the U.S. Homeland Security Department show the number of lawfully admitted migrants has risen over the past 15 months.
The government now has an opportunity for a long past-due overhaul of our immigration policy. This is a different conversation from undocumented migrants crossing the border. Illegal border crossings get most of the attention, but our immigration policy—which determines who gets visas—reflects our economic and social priorities and where our economy is headed.
The U.S. economy is at a crossroads. How about: In addition to high inflation and a potential pullback on globalization, we face an aging population and technical changes that will alter our labor force needs. Our immigration policy can change to meet all these challenges.
Currently, there are two types of migrants: permanent migrants (the people who get green cards and can eventually become citizens) and temporary migrants whose visas will one day expire. Some permanent migrants start out as temporary migrants; this is typically the case for people who get a green card for jobs. But most people offered permanent status get their visa through family reunification. They are related to a U.S. citizen, and about half lived in the U.S. before they got their visa. The figure below shows the number of permanent migrants in 2019 and 2021 by category.
Family reunification is the overwhelming reason why migrants get permanent residency status. But this population also tends to be less skilled and is less likely to fill our economic needs. Other developed countries, including Canada, Australia and the U.K., offer admission based on a points system that reflects economic priorities, with higher points awarded for more education or skills in high-demand areas.