That flow in the span of months didn’t need to happen; Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan released the migrants to force concessions from the European Union (EU). In striking a deal with Turkey in 2016, Brussels closed a route for refugees across the Balkans—but only one route.
In the first half of 2017, about 85,000 people still landed on Italy’s shores, compared with 71,000 for the same period last year, according to the International Organization for Migration, a U.N. body. So, any number of events could precipitate another wave of negativity toward immigration.
In both the United States and Europe, we see the strongest anti-immigration sentiment in two areas: first, in homogenous communities that have not been exposed to immigrants, and second, in communities that have seen such a large and quick influx of immigrants that public services cannot keep up. This is what led to the Brexit vote in June 2016, so we might interpret Brexit not as a vote against immigration but as a vote for better public services.
So, we face a conundrum: Constrain immigration, which inhibits competition and economic activity, or allow immigration, which requires public sector investment to accommodate a rapidly growing and diversifying economy.
In another post, I’ll try to answer the key question: What will it take for us to cross that final frontier and globalize the movement of labor?
Olga Bitel is global strategist at William Blair.