John Paulson, the largest SPDR investor, kept his holding unchanged last quarter, his filing showed. The stake is now valued at $3.3 billion. New York-based Paulson & Co.’s investors can choose between gold-and dollar-denominated versions of most of its funds. The 57-year-old told clients March 6 that his Gold Fund fell 26 percent this year. Stefan Prelog, a spokesman, declined to comment.

Mario Draghi

Central bank asset buying won’t end any time soon and concern about currency debasement combined with rising expectations for inflation will spur demand for gold, Morgan Stanley said in a Feb. 25 report. The median estimate of the 13 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg is for a record annual average of $1,700 in 2013, falling to $1,638 in 2014.

Bank of Japan Governor-designate Haruhiko Kuroda said last week the central bank should bring forward open-ended asset purchases scheduled to start next year. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said March 7 that officials discussed cutting borrowing costs further. Gold usually earns returns only through price gains, increasing its allure at a time of record- low interest rates.

“Just because it feels that the economy is improving does not necessarily mean that is actually happening,” said Michael Cuggino, who manages $17 billion of assets at Permanent Portfolio Family of Funds Inc. in San Francisco. “We could continue to see governments trying to boost growth.”

Argentinian Pesos

Bullion isn’t declining for all investors, amid mounting rhetoric over currency wars. Gold priced in yen rose 5.4 percent this year and in British pounds advanced 4.1 percent.

Central banks added 534.6 tons to reserves last year, the most since 1964, in part to diversify their currency holdings, according to the London-based World Gold Council. Barclays forecasts 300 tons of buying in 2013 and the same in 2014. Lower prices and improving economies may boost jewelry purchases, the biggest source of demand, with the bank predicting a 3.2 percent gain this year, from an 8.2 percent drop in 2012.

The slump in gold is curbing profit for those extracting the metal, in some cases from as deep as 2.4 miles underground. As bullion almost quadrupled since 2003, mining costs jumped more than fivefold, data compiled by New York-based Kenneth Hoffman and other analysts at Bloomberg Industries show. For as many as 11 of the world’s biggest miners, production costs averaged $991 an ounce in the first nine months of 2012.

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