Goldman Sachs executives are wary of setting a target that can be derailed by circumstances outside their control after watching competitors post returns well short of their goals, said a person familiar with their thinking.

Gorman’s Goal

Morgan Stanley has improved from 5 percent return on equity in 2012 to 6 percent in the first nine months of 2012, excluding some accounting charges. CEO James Gorman, 55, said achieving the firm’s 10 percent goal this year will depend on regulators allowing the New York-based bank to return a “reasonable” amount of capital to shareholders.

Barclays, which posted a return on equity of 3.1 percent for the first nine months of 2013, pushed back by one year to 2016 its goal of topping its cost of equity as the London-based bank raised capital to comply with new leverage ratios.

UBS AG, Switzerland’s largest lender, said in October that its goal of reaching 15 percent by 2015 would be delayed a year because of higher capital requirements imposed by Swiss regulators. The Zurich-based firm reported a 6.4 percent return on equity for the first three quarters of last year.

Deutsche Bank AG, Germany’s biggest lender, plans to reach 12 percent by 2015, up from 4.8 percent in the first nine months of 2013. Credit Suisse Group AG, based in Zurich, said it would boost its 11 percent return on equity to 15 percent, without providing a time frame.

‘Pressure Builds’

Goldman Sachs’s top managers probably want to be within a few percentage points of whatever target they lay out before they make it public, Freeman, the Barclays analyst, said. Still, if 2014 threatens to be a fifth straight year below 12 percent, investors may demand some goal, he said.

“They probably get the benefit of the doubt because of their long-term track record of strong relative performance,” Freeman said. “But more quarters where they’re perceived to not be doing as well as either they’re expected or versus peers, the pressure builds.”

Fewer than 30 percent of analysts covering Goldman Sachs recommended buying the stock in each of the past two months, the lowest figure in a decade, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Shares climbed more than 38 percent in each of the past two years, rising to the highest level since 2010.